1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:08,710 The Department of Government Efficiency says it has cut eight and a half billion 2 00:00:08,710 --> 00:00:13,070 dollars from federal contracts. That sounds enormous. 3 00:00:13,070 --> 00:00:21,160 Tonight we put that number on a scale, and we check the receipts. 4 00:00:21,160 --> 00:00:24,120 First, the receipt itself. Reuters reported the DOGE contract cuts are worth about 5 00:00:24,120 --> 00:00:27,770 eight and a half billion dollars — and framed it honestly: so far, a fraction of 6 00:00:27,770 --> 00:00:28,230 federal outlays. 7 00:00:35,300 --> 00:00:38,840 That's Reuters' own phrasing. 8 00:00:38,840 --> 00:00:41,440 Now here's the scale. The Congressional Budget Office's own open data — we pulled 9 00:00:41,440 --> 00:00:44,050 the raw numbers from their public dataset — total federal outlays for fiscal 2025 10 00:00:44,050 --> 00:00:45,910 were seven point zero one trillion dollars. Not billion. Trillion. 11 00:00:52,980 --> 00:01:01,690 Eight and a half billion against seven trillion. That's about one tenth of one 12 00:01:01,690 --> 00:01:04,180 percent of federal spending. 13 00:01:04,180 --> 00:01:10,400 This is the flagship savings achievement of the efficiency revolution. 14 00:01:10,400 --> 00:01:14,060 And even that number has a quality problem. The BBC reported that a watchdog found 15 00:01:14,060 --> 00:01:17,230 DOGE's claims to have saved Americans one hundred and ten billion dollars were 16 00:01:17,230 --> 00:01:17,470 overstated. 17 00:01:24,540 --> 00:01:33,250 That's the headline figure — one hundred ten billion — called overstated by the 18 00:01:33,250 --> 00:01:37,610 people whose job is checking the math. 19 00:01:37,610 --> 00:01:45,700 Reuters went further, describing DOGE as the secretive unit operating in the public 20 00:01:45,700 --> 00:01:50,050 eye — high-profile announcements, limited disclosure underneath. 21 00:01:50,050 --> 00:01:57,510 I want to be precise here, because this show runs on receipts. 22 00:01:57,510 --> 00:02:01,510 What is documented right now is a watchdog calling the savings claims overstated, 23 00:02:01,510 --> 00:02:04,580 and the unit's own ledger being, per Reuters, barely disclosed. 24 00:02:11,650 --> 00:02:20,990 If DOGE's number is right, show the work. That's the whole point of an efficiency 25 00:02:20,990 --> 00:02:21,610 audit. 26 00:02:21,610 --> 00:02:25,730 While everyone watched the cuts, here's what the same administration is doing on the 27 00:02:25,730 --> 00:02:28,680 other side of the ledger: buying pieces of private companies. 28 00:02:35,750 --> 00:02:38,750 October 2025, from the Oval Office: the Defense Department took a ten percent equity 29 00:02:38,750 --> 00:02:41,530 stake in Trilogy Metals — thirty-five point six million dollars, plus warrants for 30 00:02:41,530 --> 00:02:42,820 another seven and a half percent. 31 00:02:49,890 --> 00:02:57,980 A week earlier, the Department of Energy took five percent of Lithium Americas. 32 00:02:57,980 --> 00:03:07,320 And before that, the DOD became the single largest shareholder of MP Materials — the 33 00:03:07,320 --> 00:03:11,680 company running America's only rare earth mine. 34 00:03:11,680 --> 00:03:13,890 By August of this year, CNBC's running tally had the federal portfolio at more than 35 00:03:13,890 --> 00:03:15,800 ten companies: MP Materials at fifteen percent if warrants are exercised, Intel at 36 00:03:15,800 --> 00:03:17,870 ten percent — an eight point nine billion dollar CHIPS conversion — Korea Zinc, 37 00:03:17,870 --> 00:03:18,750 Vulcan Elements, ReElement, xLight, Atlantic Alumina. 38 00:03:25,820 --> 00:03:30,800 And this isn't unprecedented — it's a sequel. 39 00:03:30,800 --> 00:03:33,090 After 2008, TARP put the Treasury into private banks: seven hundred billion 40 00:03:33,090 --> 00:03:35,190 authorized, four hundred forty-three and a half billion disbursed, four hundred 41 00:03:35,190 --> 00:03:37,680 twenty-five and a half billion collected back, a lifetime cost of about thirty-one 42 00:03:37,680 --> 00:03:37,870 billion. 43 00:03:44,940 --> 00:03:48,480 That's Treasury's own accounting. 44 00:03:48,480 --> 00:03:57,810 Government as an equity holder has a documented history on both sides of the aisle. 45 00:03:57,810 --> 00:04:06,530 Here's the frame this show refuses: this is not what socialism's critics warned us 46 00:04:06,530 --> 00:04:11,510 about, and it is not free markets either. 47 00:04:11,510 --> 00:04:20,220 It's the state as equity holder — choosing winners, holding shares, and calling it 48 00:04:20,220 --> 00:04:20,840 efficiency. 49 00:04:20,840 --> 00:04:28,930 By a Cato Institute count cited by economist Veronique de Rugy, the federal 50 00:04:28,930 --> 00:04:33,910 corporate portfolio has grown to roughly thirty firms. 51 00:04:33,910 --> 00:04:37,450 Then there's the dividend promise. 52 00:04:37,450 --> 00:04:40,200 November 9th, 2025, Trump posted it himself: a dividend of at least two thousand 53 00:04:40,200 --> 00:04:43,150 dollars a person — not including high income people — paid to everyone, funded by 54 00:04:43,150 --> 00:04:44,520 tariffs. That's verified, from his own posts. 55 00:04:51,590 --> 00:04:56,570 Run the arithmetic with the CBO's own tables. 56 00:04:56,570 --> 00:04:59,480 The FY2026 projected deficit is one point eight five trillion dollars — five point 57 00:04:59,480 --> 00:05:02,810 eight percent of GDP — with debt held by the public crossing one hundred percent of 58 00:05:02,810 --> 00:05:03,640 GDP this fiscal year. 59 00:05:10,710 --> 00:05:16,320 Tariff revenue through October ran about three hundred billion. 60 00:05:16,320 --> 00:05:19,560 The Tax Foundation pegged the two-thousand-dollar checks at roughly three hundred 61 00:05:19,560 --> 00:05:23,390 billion in cost — before anyone's cut a check, the money's spoken for. 62 00:05:30,460 --> 00:05:39,170 That's before you touch Hawley's rebate bill, which would cost more and hasn't moved 63 00:05:39,170 --> 00:05:40,420 in Congress. 64 00:05:40,420 --> 00:05:44,540 A dividend funded by a mechanism that doesn't cover the deficit it already sits 65 00:05:44,540 --> 00:05:47,490 inside isn't a dividend. It's a transfer with better marketing. 66 00:05:54,560 --> 00:06:01,410 Now the strongest counter-case, because this show steelmans before it scores. 67 00:06:01,410 --> 00:06:04,340 Eric Boehm, writing in libertarian Reason: the administration has not made a 68 00:06:04,340 --> 00:06:07,750 convincing case for why it's buying stakes in these companies — and why these 69 00:06:07,750 --> 00:06:08,480 companies in particular. 70 00:06:15,550 --> 00:06:23,010 At a minimum, make the case to Congress and get congressional authorization. 71 00:06:23,010 --> 00:06:31,720 If taxpayers are going to be equity stakeholders in more than a dozen private 72 00:06:31,720 --> 00:06:36,700 companies, their elected representatives ought to approve it. 73 00:06:36,700 --> 00:06:40,370 That's the honest conservative position, and notice what it is: not a defense of 74 00:06:40,370 --> 00:06:43,510 Republican socialism — a demand for the constitutional process this practice is 75 00:06:43,510 --> 00:06:43,770 skipping. 76 00:06:50,840 --> 00:06:52,810 National Review's John Puri goes further: once government takes a financial interest 77 00:06:52,810 --> 00:06:54,950 in a company, the interventionism never ends — officials use state power to 78 00:06:54,950 --> 00:06:57,250 privilege their investments, the same model that faltered in China, at a cost of 79 00:06:57,250 --> 00:06:57,910 trillions in misallocated output. 80 00:07:04,980 --> 00:07:11,830 The disagreement on the right isn't whether this is big government. 81 00:07:11,830 --> 00:07:16,180 It's whether to say so out loud. 82 00:07:16,180 --> 00:07:25,510 So, the receipts: eight and a half billion cut, against seven trillion spent — a 83 00:07:25,510 --> 00:07:28,620 rounding error for the camera. 84 00:07:28,620 --> 00:07:32,970 A watchdog calling the savings claims overstated. 85 00:07:32,970 --> 00:07:39,820 A federal portfolio growing toward thirty companies, from both parties' playbooks. 86 00:07:39,820 --> 00:07:47,920 And a two-thousand-dollar promise that the government's own tables say can't be paid 87 00:07:47,920 --> 00:07:48,540 for. 88 00:07:48,540 --> 00:07:55,390 You don't have to take my word for any of it. 89 00:07:55,390 --> 00:08:03,490 Every number tonight is linked below, pulled from Reuters, the BBC, Treasury, the 90 00:08:03,490 --> 00:08:09,090 CBO's own open datasets, Reason, and the Cato count. 91 00:08:09,090 --> 00:08:12,630 Check the work. 92 00:08:12,630 --> 00:08:17,540 That's the point. Next week: the defense contractors in the equity portfolio — who 93 00:08:17,540 --> 00:08:23,160 they are, who they gave to, and which committee let it through without a vote. The 94 00:08:23,160 --> 00:08:24,910 receipts first. End of narration.