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The Price Tag: What America Pays in 2026 · Episode 4

The Refund

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The Treasury paid $157.8B through Customs and Border Protection in fiscal 2026. Previous years: ~$10.5B. The difference: ~$147B in refunds of tariffs the Supreme Court struck down. Who got the refund? Importers. Not consumers. See the receipts: [sources page]

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RECEIPTS (the sources behind this episode): • Tariff Revenue Fiscal 2026: $333 Billion Collected, $158 Billion Paid Out by...: https://cranberryjournal.com/business/customs-paid-it-back/ • An Update About CBO's Projections of the Budgetary Effects of Tariffs | Congr...: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/62210 • piie.com: https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/2025/trumps-tariff-revenue-tracker-how-much-us-collecting-which-imports-are • Supreme Court Rules Against Tariffs Imposed Under the International Emergency...: https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/LSB11398 • Supreme Court strikes down tariffs | SCOTUSblog: https://www.scotusblog.com/2026/02/supreme-court-strikes-down-tariffs/ • A breakdown of the court’s tariff decision | SCOTUSblog: https://www.scotusblog.com/2026/02/a-breakdown-of-the-courts-tariff-decision/ • How Are Firms Using Their Tariff Refunds? - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta: https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/publications/policy-hub-macroblog/2026/09/21/how-are-firms-using-tariff-refunds • Tariff Refunds Largely Kept as Cash by US Companies, Fed Finds - Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-21/most-firms-keep-cash-from-tariff-refunds-fed-study-finds • Most companies will hold onto tariff refunds as cash: Atlanta Fed survey | CF...: https://www.cfodive.com/news/most-companies-hold-tariff-refunds-cash-atlanta-fed-survey-trump-shareholders/831054/ • prosperousamerica.org: https://prosperousamerica.org/tariffs-as-budget-pay-fors-three-revenue-options-for-congress/ • federalreserve.gov: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/detecting-tariff-effects-on-consumer-prices-in-real-time-part-II-20260408.html • Outlook for the Budget and the Economy | Congressional Budget Office: https://www.cbo.gov/topics/economy/outlook-budget-and-economy • Table 3. Estimated Revenue Effects of All 2025 Tariffs, as of September 26 (T... (on screen at 0m48s): https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/state-us-tariffs-september-26-2025 • Share of total revenue by category (FY 2025) (on screen at 0m48s): https://usafacts.org/answers/how-much-revenue-does-the-federal-government-collect-from-tariffs/country/united-states/ • The Price Tag What America Pays 2026 (on screen at 1m59s): https://thenationalpulse.com/2026/10/05/data-dsa-agenda-would-cost-u-s-taxpayers-trillions • U.S. Customs and Border Protection (on screen at 2m03s): https://flickr.com/photos/54593278@N03/ • Executive Order 14361 (on screen at 4m39s): https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Executive_Order_14361.pdf • Executive Order 14266 (on screen at 4m39s): https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Executive_Order_14266.pdf • Fountain and Flag at Supreme Court in Washington DC (on screen at 5m06s): https://cherryblossomwatch.com/exploredc/supreme-court/ • Port of Los Angeles sunrise (on screen at 9m23s): https://www.flickr.com/photos/35626429@N08/3333241473 • President Trump Signs Executive Orders, Sep. 25, 2025 (on screen at 2m40s): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3urjiwp_wQ

Short cuts

part · 114s
The Treasury paid $157.8 billion out of its account.
part · 135s
The refunds are going to importers. Not consumers.
part · 119s
Who gets the refund? The importer.
part · 112s
The refunds would help consumers. The money would come back to you.
part · 166s
The strongest counter comes from the Coalition for a Prosperous America.
aspire · 37s
The claim was that tariffs would make America rich.
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